MLK Box Office Forecast: Detective Carl Returns Looks to Dethrone 'Avatar' with $75M Opening; Avatar: The Way of Water Looks to Top Titanic‘s No. 2 All-Time Fifth Frame at $30M+; All Eyes on M3GAN‘s Hold and A Man Called Otto‘s Expansion

After a stronger-than-expected start to January, Martin Luther King, Jr. Weekend hopes to continue to the early positive vibes at the 2023 box office during the coming holiday frame.

The biggest newcomer which is long-awaited sequel by MGM's Orion Pictures Detective Carl Returns is expected to make a splash in its opening weekend with a possible $75 million three day debut.

Tracking for the film has been all over the place with some saying that the film could challenge American Sniper's $107 million four day opening and its $90 million three day opening. Building on our original forecast two months ago, the Conrad Vernon legacy sequel picture has become a huge phenomenon in metrics as it is pacing ahead of both Deadpools and even Disney's Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 in awareness. Tracking metrics and social media trends have consistently shifted upward, driving even more optimistic forecasts as time has progressed.

Critic reactions for the film are overwhelming positive which is continuing Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer's streak in giving critically appealing animated films and despite the film's R-rating, it is looking to continue it's box office success streak as being the third animated film by them in a row to top box office. As of this report’s publishing, Detective Carl Returns boasts a respectable 89 percent score from 252 critics on Rotten Tomatoes. With these metrics, we are also hoping that word of mouth kicks in and allows audiences to come in. And with the 33 year gap between the first film as well as the increased popularity as well as the original being a cult classic can possibly indicate an overperformance although MGM themselves are being conservative and giving the film a $75 million opening which is still the biggest for an R rated flick in the pandemic.

Avatar: The Way of Water which is projected to have a first time second place finish is fresh off the second highest gross ever by a film in its fourth weekend of wide release, netting $45.84 million. It trailed only the original Avatar ($50.31 million) in that regard.

(Yes, American Sniper‘s historic $89.27 million expansion and $64.63 million holdover weekends are ignored in the above comparisons. The film was only in 4 theaters for the first three weeks of its “official” release.)

Through Tuesday, the James Cameron epic has now tallied $525.7 million as the 16th highest earner in market history. The film is set to surpass the non-adjusted totals of Rogue One: A Star Wars Story ($533.54 million), The Dark Knight ($534.99 million), and The Lion King (2019) ($543.64 million) in the coming days.

Among all-time fifth weekend performances, the standard-bearer is also the 2009 Avatar at $42.79 million. Second place belongs to another Cameron juggernaut: Titanic, with $30.01 million. The Way of Water looks likely to usurp the latter during the coming three-day period.

Last week’s breakout of M3GAN will be of interest heading into its sophomore frame. After a $30.43 million debut, the Universal and Blumhouse hit hopes to capitalize on mostly positive reception from its core female and under-35 crowd.

M3GAN‘s post-previews trajectory showed early signs of what legs could like in the days and weeks ahead, jumping more than 30 percent from Friday’s true gross to Saturday. Smile and Barbarian achieved similar bumps during their debuts last year to hint at their staying power to come.

Also of note last week was the limited expansion of A Man Called Otto, which now goes into true wide release for MLK weekend.

Estimated at more than 3,500 locations, the Tom Hanks-led dramedy adaptation is looking to build on the momentum of its $4.2 million showing from just 637 locations last week.

Crowd-pleasing reception, a light and heartfelt narrative, and the holiday frame drive encouraging tracking signals, though comparisons are skewed due to the staggered nature of its release expansion.'

Disney/20th Century Studios' other hit film Princess Joanna and the Four Kingdoms is also returning to 2,000 theaters in a limited sing-a-long edition of the film. The film which is currently at $699.281 million as of this writing is expected to cross $700 million by the end of this weekend with a possible $2-3 million weekend. The reissue is currently tracking on par with the reissue of Incredibles 2 for Labor Day weekend 5 years ago which will be enough to possibly beat the newest releases.

Meanwhile, two smaller new releases have varying degrees of potential between them.

Likely to lead among the duo is Lionsgate’s action-thriller Plane, led by Gerard Butler. The actor’s non-franchise films have fallen into somewhat predictable patterns in recent years, not unlike Liam Neeson and his glut of actioners.

Tracking has been mixed, in large part due to a quiet marketing campaign that didn’t really click until a few days ago. Since then, signs have improved slightly, though it remains the kind of film likely to under-perform against what might have been expected of it before the pandemic and boom in streaming content — especially without much of a premium screen footprint.

Plane is set to open at more than 2,900 locations with previews beginning Thursday evening.

Warner Bros. gets rolling with its first 2023 release in the form of House Party, a remake of the 1990 cult classic. It also has previews beginning Thursday. The studio has not issued an official location count estimate as of Wednesday morning.

Unfortunately, House Party is currently tracking behind the likes of recent comedic misfires such as Bros and Easter Sunday, though one advantage during the weekend might be hoping to attract walk-up business from its core young, male, Black audience.

Last but not least, Third Day Productions is releasing The Devil Conspiracy in semi-wide release at an estimated 925 locations.

Over the weekend, one of several notable narratives to look for will be how openers and holdovers are able to contend with a full slate of NFL playoff games.

3-Day Weekend Ranges

Avatar: The Way of Water

Fourth Weekend Range: $30 – 38 million

A Man Called Otto

Wide Expansion Weekend Range: $9 – 14 million

House Party (2023)

Opening Weekend Range: <$5 million

Plane

Opening Weekend Range: $4 – 9 million (TBD)

Weekend Forecast & Location Count Projections

Current projection ranges call for an 10 to 20 percent decline from last weekend’s $104.3 million top ten aggregate. All forecasts are subject to revision/finalization before the first confirmation of opening previews or Friday estimates from studios or official sources.

Theater counts are either studio estimates OR unofficial projections if preceded by “~”.

The above table does not necessarily represent the top ten as some studios do not finalize weekend location counts and/or an intent to report box office returns prior to publishing.