Long Range Tracking: The Teenagers Movie and Violent Night

Box Office Pro

Before the highly anticipated release of Avatar: The Way of Water, there is one last animated flick that Disney is releasing this year under 20th Century Studios with co-distribution with Warner Bros. Pictures and that is the highly anticipated TV adaptation, The Teenagers Movie.

$105–120 million (opening), $285–345 million (predicted lifeline domestic total)

PROS:


 * Older fans of the iconic TV series would want their children to show up to the first feature length film based on the series, with the series being extremely popular towards the African-American crowd.
 * The highly praised cast from the television series as well as a star-studded cast of newcomers Laurence Fishburne, Gladys Knight, Keith David, Jurnee Smollett, Big Sean, Lizzo, and Bad Bunny can also attract an audience as well
 * After the two most recent Bad Life of Daniel theatrical movies Daniel's Big Return and Daniel: Bigger, Badder and Meaner went on to gross over $890 million and $920 million worldwide respectively, this film could possibly land in the Top 3 for one of the biggest adult animated adaptations of all time.
 * Being one of Fox's most popular animated shows of all time, the film is expected to bring millions, and could possibly leg out due to a benefit of it's December release date.
 * Demos and social presence of the film is currently on par with Daniel's Big Return which grossed over $400 million domestically and is also leaning towards similar presence to a high-profile 20th Century Animation Century City sequel film.
 * The film will be last animated film of the year and will have plenty of time to breathe as well as have a huge benefit of holiday legs until the release of Detective Carl Returns on January 27, 2023.

CONS:


 * While competition isn't nothing to be worried about except Disney/20th Century Studios' own Avatar: The Way of Water which is being released 2 weeks after and taking up most of the PLF screenings by that time, and because of this legs for the film could be cut off due to the much bigger film taking over.
 * Unlike children's adaptations, other than The Simpsons Movie, Jeremy Monroe: The Biggest Movie Ever, and The Bad Life of Daniel movies. adult animated TV show adaptations often struggle at box office with The Bob's Burgers Movie earlier in May of this year, being an evident example of this.
 * Regardless of the films performance, 20th Century Studios has had a record breaking year in terms of their animated films with Twentieth Toons grossing over $400 million domestically and $1.1 billion worldwide as well as Princess Joanna and the Four Kingdoms expected to be an instant hit so should the film underperform or open below expectations, Disney's input of Avatar 2 as well as the other two animated films released this year should make up for an underperformance.
 * In a world of a successful television and theatrical franchise The Bad Life of Daniel as well as how successful 20th Century Animation films have been since Disney acquisition of Fox, there’s every expectation that the film will be a success even if it performs at the most conservative end of expectations. For perspective, prior to Daniel's Big Return‘s record breaking $135.1 million opening, no other animated theatrical adaptation to a TV series has made over $100 million in its opening weekend.
 * While it is unlikely that the film would reach the $232.5 million record that Cool Spot: Spot Goes to Hollywood holds for for the biggest opening for an animated film in December; currently the highest grossing animated opening of all time for an adult animated TV show adaptation is held by Daniel's Big Return ($135.1 million), which could be a tough task to handle should word-of-mouth as well as competition prevent it from doing so.
 * Regardless of the performance of the film, it is great that 20th Century Animation has had a great year in box office with this film hopefully continuing their streak.

PROS:


 * Black Panther: Wakanda Forever continues to heat up with one week until launch and plenty of strong social media reactions out of early industry screenings. Given the first film’s ability to break out beyond the die-hard Marvel audience and soar past expectations, this sequel’s audience potential still has room to evolve over the coming week(s) and could prove this week’s minor revisions below unnecessary.


 * Violent Night is offering up a holiday-themed actioner for adults with David Harbour’s performance (Stranger Things, 2019’s Hellboy) anchoring positive sentiment across the social sphere of trailer reactions. Some breakout potential exists. The overall universe of preliminary tracking and marketing analysis, before ticket sales begin, is pacing almost 80 percent ahead of 2021’s Nobody ($6.8 million opening weekend during early theatrical recovery), and not far from that of the original John Wick ($14.4 million), Krampus ($16.3 million), and Office Christmas Party ($16.9 million).

CONS:


 * Wakanda Forever‘s overall range has slightly widened as pre-sales for the most recent seven-day period fell slightly short of projections (though not enough to be concerned about), while reactions to the recently released second trailer weren’t as measurably strong as the original teaser (which scored among the highest of any recent Marvel film, to be fair). It still remains to be seen whether full critics’ reviews will have a major impact on sales or social sentiment next week, as well as the film’s 161-minute length and continued caution surrounding the tragic reality that this sequel is ultimately without its predecessor’s lead star, Chadwick Boseman. Pinpoint forecasts tentatively lean toward the low end of current ranges. Final forecasts will be published next week.


 * Men over 25 will be the driver of Violent Night‘s run with a lower degree of female appeal than the aforementioned comparison films released around this time of year, meaning some potential niche factor to consider in forecasts. Reviews and audience reception will be important to watch for in the weeks ahead, as might any potential shortened theatrical window if Universal opts to make the film available at home close to Christmas.

Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2022’s Upcoming Calendar

(as of 11/4/22) ''Unless otherwise noted, all above figures represent best and worst case scenarios for how each respective film is currently tracking based on existing market conditions and projected model fluctuation before release. These are not final forecasts.''

''Additional pinpoint opening weekend and domestic total projections are available to clients. For more information on forecasts, pricing, and availability, please contact us.''