Long Range Box Office Forecast: Detective Carl Returns, House Party, A Man Called Otto, and Plane

BoxOffice Pro

This year’s MLK box office is poised to fly high with the long anticipated release of Jason Bateman, Jim Carrey, and Orion's Detective Carl Returns over the lucrative holiday frame as the year starts to begin along with other major releases.

Detective Carl Returns

Orion/United Artists Releasing

January 13, 2023

Opening Weekend Range: $68 – 78 million opening weekend; $80 – 97 million 4 day opening

PROS:


 * The original 1990 film was a sleeper hit that later resonated to audiences through local syndication as well as frequent airings on television along with a TV series following it up.
 * It grossed $69 million in its initial run and would be adjusted to $115 million in today's inflation rates and ticket sales.


 * Detective Carl Returns has consistently driven strong social media and trailer traction since the first teaser was released in August 2022, followed by a subsequent trailer in October that year. Praise is strongest for the film’s nostalgic appeal as well as Bateman and Carrey's chemistry, Carrey's own comedic style, the return of Ryan Reynolds, and the animation itself. Models are notably ahead of all R-rated comps aside from the original Deadpool at the same point in the pre-release cycle..


 * The return of the typical actors along with Johnny Depp who recently profound more fame following his win against Amber Heard could even factor in Depp fans to join along viewing the film.
 * Carrey's previous films typical skew equally between the domestic and international split.


 * With Carrey riding on the wave of his success as Dr. Robotnik in the Sonic the Hedgehog live-action films, a return to his more adult comedy roots as well as the return of Bateman and Carrey could bring a significant share of millennials and Generation X viewers who previously viewed Top Gun: Maverick
 * The success of Top Gun: Maverick in May 2022 proves that legacy sequels could be successful as long as they are did right and Carl isn't an exception.
 * Despite a number of pandemic-induced delays, Maverick has consistently ranked among the most anticipated tentpoles to release exclusively in theaters with a true big-screen experience promised by Cruise and the marketing campaign. A committed PLF run, IMAX included, will be a major component of its box office run.
 * Early test audience reactions have been beyond enthusiastic from industry reporters and bloggers, backing up long-term expectations over the past three years that this film might be a true cinematic experience that could tap into the cultural zeitgeist.
 * With no major releases in January, the film will have the whole month to dominate.
 * The additional star power of Ryan Reynolds since his success on Deadpool and the similar comedy could drive viewers as well.

CONS:


 * Although films such as Deadpool, Joker, and Logan have proven that films with R rating could be successful, audiences have lacked to return to R rated comedy fare as horror movies have dominated comedies when it comes to box office during the pandemic era.
 * Considering the R rating, the film won't have a family audience and have an audience in-vein to the Deadpool films as well as focusing on word-of-mouth from older audiences as well as younger Gen Z ones.
 * Franchise revival films can be hit or miss at box office with films such the most recent Top Gun: Maverick as well as Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle and Bad Boys for Life but the majority often fail at box office such as R-rated Blade Runner 2049.
 * While adult animated fare such as the Daniel films as well as The Teenagers Movie have proven that adult animation can be successful, the factor that film is rated R rather than PG-13 could cause concern.
 * The film's $185 million budget means that the film's bar for success is extremely high.

PROS:


 * House Party is a remake of the 1990 cult classic led by Kid ‘n Play, this time with NBA superstar LeBron James on board as a producer, that could have minor sleeper potential for an underserved audience.


 * A Man Called Otto hopes to buck the trend of recent adult-driven dramas with Tom Hanks leading an adaptation of the popular book. Marketing’s light-hearted slant and positive reception from industry screenings offer some encouragement at this stage.


 * Plane will aim for the older male action fans who have come to represent the bulk of recent Gerard Butler movies, not unlike Liam Neeson’s lean into that corner of the genre.

CONS:


 * Early social footprints for House Party are underwhelming as marketing has yet to make much of an impression. If the prior week’s M3GAN hits optimistic expectations, that could further diminish young audience interest in this remake. Another reason is if Detective Carl Returns overperforms it could diminish its young audience even more.


 * As mentioned, adult audiences have come back to theaters, but dramas in particular have a hard time recovering compared to higher profile films. A Man Called Otto has that recent history to overcome despite looking like the type of film that might have been (and still could be) a solid mid-range performer before the pandemic, ala The Upside remake.
 * With Detective Carl Returns being released the same week along with Avatar: The Way of Water holding over, Plane‘s path to success as an action film will have to rely on Butler’s appeal and counter-programming potential.

Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2023’s Upcoming Calendar

(as of 12/16/22) ''Unless otherwise noted, all figures above represent best and worst case scenarios for how each respective film is currently tracking based on existing market conditions and projected model fluctuation at the time of this report’s publication date. These are statistical snapshots, not final forecasts.''

''Additional pinpoint opening weekend and domestic total projections for theatrical movies up to 12 months from release are available to clients. For more information on forecasts and pricing, please contact us.''